A Policy Brief by Gilles Dorronsoro

In a new Carnegie Policy Briefing, Focus and Exit: An Alternative Strategy for the Afghan War, Gilles Dorronsoro argues that the U.S. troops surge should focus on securing key cities and roads in order to strengthen Afghan institutions. Ultimately, this should create the conditions for a progressive troops withdrawal - the only realistic political strategy for the U.S. to deconflict Afghanistan.

Dorronsoro Concludes:

“The Taliban have been able to adapt very quickly to allied tactics. Their learning curve is good, and they have the psychological momentum. The situation in 2009 is probably going to deteriorate, but the results of any increase in troop numbers will be difficult to assess before the summer of 2010. In the event of failure, the U.S. administration will have very few options left, because sending another 30,000 troops would present a political challenge. This is why it is especially important to concentrate attention on areas where the troops can make a real difference (i.e., Kabul and not Helmand), allowing the allies to build sustainable Afghan institutions and eventually withdraw their military forces.”

Gilles Dorronsoro is a noted expert on Afghanistan and Turkey, having worked in and on those countries for over 20 years. His research focuses on security and political development in Afghanistan, particularly the role of the International Security Assistance Force, the necessary steps for a viable government in Kabul, and the conditions necessary for withdrawal scenarios. Previously, Dorronsoro was a professor of political science at the Sorbonne, Paris and the Institute of Political Studies of Rennes. He also served as the scientific coordinator at the French Institute of Anatolian Studies in Istanbul, Turkey.

(Source: Carnegie Europe)